Considering commitments to replace electricity generation with nuclear energy: estimates of climate change impact costs using a modified VENSIM DICE model

Abstract

During the last few years, nuclear energy and small modular reactors have received attention due to the increase in climate change awareness. According to the recent Paris agreement, global temperature rise is to be kept below 2°C and preferably below 1.5°C by 2050. Both transition to 2030 and transformation of the national energy portfolio by 2050 and beyond are being debated. COP 26 in Glasgow is recent testimony. To investigate the global effects of replacing fossil- fueled power plant (FFPP) with SMR (Small Modular Reactor) nuclear power plants to estimate CO emission reduction, using the recently modified Nordhaus Dynamic Integrated Climate 2 Economy (DICE) model mounted on the VENSIM dynamic systems modeling tool. Simulations were performed with the various global net-zero targets in increments of 10 years, starting from year, 2019 to 2100. Representative simulations results indicate that replacing more than 70,000 FFPPs currently operating in the world, would reduce CO₂ emissions roughly 12.63% relative to the conditions attributed to 2020 (2019, exact), and as many as 7,320 SMR power plant (if 960 MWe each) are needed to address electricity demand alone. Thus, a combination of small to large reactors, and other non-emitting energy sources are needed. The modified DICE model predicts the cost of climate damage loss of business opportunity as a result of changes to the deep ocean, upper ocean (surface) and atmospheric temperatures, close to USD 1.515 trillion by the end of this century. That said, additional refinement of the DICE model is needed to reflect regional oceanic flows, that impact fishing (food supply) and shipping lanes. Currently a cost of USD 1.073 trillion is predicted as the potential toll on human health costs: this is equal to USD 2.59 trillion dollars loss in economy. Major challenges to large-scale SMR deployment including proliferation and supply-chain issues; these are discussed.