OPTIMIZING THE IMPLEMENTATION OF SMALL MODULAR REACTORS INTO ONTARIO'S ENERGY MIX USING A SEMI-DYNAMIC APPROACH (134)

Abstract

In 2018, the Canadian SMR Roadmap Steering Committee, made up of a group of Canadian provincial governments, territorial governments, and private power utilities, released an in-depth plan to launch an SMR program throughout Canada. To support this endeavor, the effect of introducing SMRs into the Ontario energy mix has been studied by modelling an economically optimized provincial energy mix. Using linear programming and IBM's CPLEX Optimization software, a model was developed to compare frontline SMR designs with Ontario's existing utilities. The model seeks to minimize the overall cost of electricity generation in Ontario by replacing a fraction of the existing capacity with SMRs, including constraints such as CO2 emissions, nuclear waste disposal and the hourly availability of competing renewables. Employing CPLEX's Flow Control processes, the newest version of the model acts as a semi-dynamic analysis, creating a series of model instances which may be solved in sequence with the application of data processing between each iteration. The use of Flow Control has allowed for a more accurate and robust model, as trends such as increasing electrical demand, annual CANDU outages and time-varying costs may now be incorporated. Following the recent implementation of Flow Control, optimized scenarios have suggested that phasing out remaining natural gas capacity and allocating as much as 13% of Ontario's energy demand to SMR-generated electricity will minimize overall costs of Ontario's power production.