Probabilistic Assessment of the Long-Term Effects of Uranium Tailings

Abstract

Predicting the long-term environmental effects of uranium mill tailings requires the use of mathematical models, Probabilistic analysis provides a framework for incorporating the inherent uncertainty in many of the model input


parameters. This paper provides a brief overview of the concepts of probabilistic analysis and illustrates its application to uranium mill tailings. The paper describes the structure and features of the Uranium Tailings Assessment Program (UTAP) which was developed in a multi-phase study for the National Uranium Tailings Program (NUTP), A brief review of the overall NUTP approach to model development is also provided.