A Statistical Assessment Of CANDU® Fuel Manufacturing Parameters And Their Impact On In-Reactor Performance During Transient Conditions

Abstract

Probability distributions were fitted to actual fuel manufacturing datasets provided by Cameco. They were used to generate input for two industry-standard fuel performance codes; ELESTRES for the steady-state case and ELOCA for the transient case. 100,000 simulations were conducted, and in both cases key output quantities were very distant from industrial acceptance criteria, implying the existence of margin in the current design. In terms of global sensitivity, pellet density proved to have the greatest impact on fuel performance, with an average sensitivity index of 52.0%. Pellet grain size and dish depth were also significant contributors, at 20.8% and 9.6%, respectively.