Dynamic Scenario Quantification Based on Continuous Markov Monte Carlo Method With Meta-Model of Thermalhydraulics for Level 2 PSA

Abstract

We have established a dynamic scenario quantification method based on the coupling of a Continuous Markov Monte Carlo (CMMC) method and a plant thermal-hydraulics analysis code for level 2 PSA (probabilistic safety assessment). This paper presents meta-analysis coupling model to obtain the dynamic scenario quantification with a reasonable computational cost. The PLOHS (protected-loss-of-heat-sink) accident of a liquid sodium fast reactor is selected as the level 2 PSA scenario in the model. Furthermore, we also discuss categorizing methods of the quantification result because the coupling method differs widely from existing event tree method.