Future Fuel Cycles : A Resource Utilization and Economic Assessment

Abstract

Previous studies of alternative CANDU fuel cycles have concluded that a fuel cycle must offer both financial and resource savings, if it is to be considered for introduction into Ontario's nuclear system (1). This paper examines the most promising CANDU fuel cycles in the context of both these factors, for a wide range of installed capacity growth rates and economic assumptions. The goal of the study was to determine which fuel cycle, or cycles, should be introduced, and when, in order to achieve the greatest resource and financial savings over the widest range of future conditions.

It is concluded that the optimum path for the long term begins with the prompt introduction of the low-enriched-uranium fuel cycle. For a wide range of conditions, this cycle remains the optimum throughout the very long term.

Conditions of rapid nuclear growth and very high uranium prices warrant the supersedure of the low-enriched-uranium cycle by either a plutonium-topped thorium cycle, or plutonium recycle, beginning in the timeframe of 2010 to 2025. The exact introduction date is not critical to the resource or financial savings.