Going Up of Going Down? The History and Future of CO2 and Nuclear Power

Abstract

Nuclear energy use is projected to decrease in the United States, Canada and Europe, and increase in Asia and the Pacific-Rim countries, as well as other economically growing countries while global total energy use grows. Net carbon dioxide and other energy production related emissions are projected to increase.

This dilemma is of growing CO₂ emissions and a declining reliance on non-carbon energy sources in developed countries, who are meant to show leadership to others. Despite Herculean international efforts to adopt alternate energy and emissions reduction strategies without damaging the national or global economies or energy-intensive industries, the economic and industrial development of the last 200 years has been carbon-fuelled and is projected to remain so. The impact of human activity on the Earth and increased CO₂ and other emissions into the atmosphere is now clear with resulting debates on global warming and climate change. I give the primary sources for the actual technical data, including key accessible and clickable websites that I have found useful, correlate trends which are currently known and provide the broad spectrum of future energy and emission projections and uncertainties.

I adopt a model for observed atmospheric GHG concentrations based on the correlation of historic and projected carbon energy use patterns. I estimate the direct impact of various alternate non-carbon energy portfolios on atmospheric CO₂ concentration for the 21^st Century. To stabilize CO₂ concentrations at about today's levels requires introducing a portfolio of about 30-40% of our energy requirements from all the non-carbon energy sources, plus about 10% sequestration. This means weaning the world from about 90% reliance on carbon sources to about 60% over the next century.

Unconstrained or even planned growth in world population and energy use suggests we will need to use in combination all the non-carbon energy sources available to us in the 21^st Century, to successfully manage and preserve the global environment. We establish the needed non-carbon portfolios for a significant fraction of future energy use without onerous or expensive restrictions on carbon fuels. Nuclear has been unfairly described as unsafe and uneconomic, compared to other alternates, and hence not an acceptable non-energy carbon source. I argue that nuclear, renewable and hydrogen energy sources together are uniquely synergistic, reducing costs, extending energy resources, providing additional electricity generation capacity, and reducing transportation emissions. These benefits provide economic advantage and export potential, increase the lifetime of oil and gas resources, and encourage technical innovation in transportation.

Nuclear reactors, along with other energy sources, have a vital role in the potential for energy supply. Like all competitive energy technologies, nuclear reactors must have a long-term commitment to technical innovation, combined with significant design enhancements. To manage global emissions, the key role of nuclear energy and advanced nuclear plants is clear, in both power generation, hydrogen manufacture and co-generation, whether or not the current worldwide value (~7-10%) or a growing share of the world energy market is assumed.