Vision of Energy Supply in the 21st Century: Managing the Global Bonfire

Abstract

Humans have lit a vast carbon-based bonfire that has fueled the world's economic and industrial development for the last 200 years. In that time, the impact of emissions into the atmosphere has become measurable, and has triggered debates on global warming and climate change as a result of rising levels of greenhouse gases.Growth in world population and energy use suggests we will need to use all the energy sources available to us in the 21'' Century, to successfully manage and preserve the environment.Consistent with the need for continued human and economic growth and reduced emissions, we must use non-carbon sources for a significant fraction of future energy use without onerous or expensive restrictions on carbon fuels.Nuclear, renewable and hydrogen energy sources together are uniquely synergistic, reducing costs, extendmg energy resources, providing additional electricity generation capacity, and reducing transportation emissions. These benefits provide an economic advantage and export potential, increase the lifetime of oil and gas resources, and encourage technical innovation in transportation.To illustrate these impacts we adopt a model for observed atmospheric GHG concentrations based on the correlation of historic and projected carbon energy use patterns. We estimate the direct impact of various alternate non-carbon based energy sources on atmospheric COz concentration for the 21St Century. To stabilize COz concentrations at about today's levels requires introducing about 30-40% of all the noncarbon energy sources, plus about 10% sequestration. This means weaning the world from about 90% reliance on carbon sources to about 60% over the next century, and still keep the people of the world and their economic future moving and growing.The key role of nuclear energy and advanced nuclear plants becomes clear, whether or not the current worldwide value (-7-10%) or a growing share of the energy market is assumed. We note that in the future, nuclear energy must be used for more purposes than just routine electricity generation and use as we now know it.Hydrogen's role as an energy currency is examined. When made from natural gas, total COz emissions increase; when distributed renewable energy sources are the source, uses of hydrogen in Transportation and Industry are delayed further, because it must compete with gasoline, methanol, natural gas combustion and reforming. However, nuclear and hydrogen energy are synergistic in the efficient generation of the fuel, the reduction of emissions, and to enabling renewables to develop as a partial distributed interruptible energy source.Economic models for Hz production can be combined with energy forecasts, and emissions analysis. We show that the latest technologes which use electrolysis for the manufacture of hydrogen allow for simultaneous deuterium production at very low added cost. Deuterium is the prime component of the heavy water needed as a moderator which makes for excellent synergism between CANDU electricity production and hydrogen production. The future must indeed be a balance of carbon and non-carbon sources working in harmony, each with a key role to play in providing a sustainable energy future.