The End of Cheap Oil

Abstract

Easy to find "conventional" oil in huge quantities has fueled and satisfied the World's thirst for energy this century. About 95% of all oil produced-and 90% of today's production comes from this group of hydrocarbons. But the coming century of the new millenium will see the exit of conventional oil as a major player on the World's energy stage. Already, outside the Middle East, conventional oil production is on the decline. And the Middle East with its vast reservoirs of oil will soon reach the mid-point of depletion and begn its irreversible decline. Currently, one barrel of oil is being found for every four barrels that are produced. The Middle East now supplies 30% of the World's conventional oil production and that trend is rising because, unlike in the 1970s, no new major provinces, save perhaps the Caspian, are there to deliver flush production. The stage is now set for another "energy crisis" starting with higher prices from Middle East control and followed by the onset of physical shortage around 2010. We face something new to human experience.