Canada's Nuclear Industry, Greenhouse Gas En~issionsa, nd the Kyoto Protocol

Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change, dated December 10, 1997 committed Canada to reduce greenhouse gases to 6% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012. Other nations also committed to varying degrees of reduction. The Protocol includes provisions for credit to the "developed" counties for initiatives which lead to greenhouse gas reduction in the "developing" countries and for the sharing of credit between "developed" countries for projects undertaken jointly. The rules and details for implementation of these guidelines remain to be negotiated. We begin our study by establishing the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions already avoided by the nuclear industry in Canada since the inception of commercial power plants in 1971. We then review projections of energy use in Canada and anticipated increase in electricity use up to the year 2020. These studies have anticipated no (or have "not permitted") further development of nuclear electricity production in spite of the clear benefit with respect to greenhouse gas emission. The studies also predict a relatively small growth of electricity use. In fact the projections indicate a reversal of a trend toward increased per capita electricity use which is contrary to observations of electricity usage in national economies as they develop. We then provide estimates of the magnitude of greenhouse gas reduction which would result from replacing the projected increase in fossil fuel electricity by nuclear generation through the building of more plants and/or making better use of existing installations. This is followed by an estimate of additional nuclear capacity needed to avoid CO; emissions while providing the electricity needed should per capita usage remain constant. Canada's greenhouse gas reduction goal is a small fraction of international commitments. The Kyoto agreement's "flexibility mechanism" provisions provide some expectation that Canada could obtain some credit for greenhouse gas reductions established by deployment of Canadian CANDU technology in other countries. Such credits could ultimately result in economic benefits accruing to electricity generation which does not emit greenhouse gases. We explore the implications of the Kyoto Protocol to the Canadian nuclear industry and the Canadian economy. Establishing credit to Canada for its contribution via nuclear technology poses many unanswered questions at this stage of development of the principles established by the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of nuclear energy to carbon dioxide emissions management is extremely large.