A Bayesian Reliability Study on Motorized Valves for the Emergency Core Cooling, Heat Transport Isolation and Shutdown Cooling Systems at Gentilly-2 Nuclear Generating Station
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Abstract
The objective of this study is to examine operational dam on 32 motorized valves in the emergency core cooling. shutdown cooling and heat transport isolation systems and determine if the evidence would support a reduction in resting frequency of these valves. The methodology used is to examine the data which has accumulated on motorized valve failures since Gentilly-2 first entered service, compare these data with similar data from other sources. and determine whether the evidence indicate that demand-based, wearout type failure mechanisms play a significant role in the recorded failures. The statistical data are then updated, using a Bayesian updating procedure. 10 obtain revised time based failure rates and demand based probabilities of failure on demand for the motorized valves. The revised failure rates and probabilities are then applied to the fault tree models for the systems of interest to determine what effect there would be. wish the current test intervals and with extended lest intervals. on the probability of failure of the systems.
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