Kinetics of Resource Utilization in Large Energy Supply Systems: Uranium Resources and Fuel Cycles

Abstract

A bell-shaped distribution analysis for non-renewable resource utilization forecasts has been applied to crude-oil and uranium resources in the world and in Canada. The distribution identifies potentially sensitive stages in the supply-demand balance. It reveals that shortfall in supply with respect to exponential growth in demand begins to occur prior to peak production and at a stage when only about 1/3 of the resource has been consumed.

Bell-shaped production curves have been prepared for uranium resources for the world (excluding the centrally planned regions) and for Canada, based on a once-through fuel-cycle and relatively low nuclear-growth scenarios. They have demonstrated that, using the assured categories of uranium resources, shortages in uranium supply would begin to develop as early as the year 1993 in the world and 2003 in Canada. If resources in the estimated additional categories are included, the shortages would not develop until 1998 and 2034, respectively.

For the world, options for responding to shortages in uranium include plutonium recycle in thermal reactors, the use of low-enriched uranium in CANDU reactors and the adoption of thorium fuel cycles and fast breeders. Plutonium will be a key source of energy to meet the growing demand for electricity and to substitute for shortfalls in oil and uranium supplies. Worldwide efforts should be undertaken soon to ensure its availability by the turn of the century.

If a firm commitment were made today to adopt the thorium fuel cycle in Canada, the earliest date by which it could make a significant contribution to Canadian energy needs would be the mid 2030s. It may be possible to avoid uranium shortages in Canada before that time, if extensive exploration activity shows that uranium resources in the unassured categories do indeed exist.